10-Year ASCVD Risk
Calculator
The 2013 ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations estimate your 10-year risk of a first heart attack or stroke from routine clinical values. Enter your numbers below — everything is computed in your browser.
Your details
Estimated 10-year ASCVD risk
How this works
Methodology reviewed July 2026This tool implements the standard 2013 ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations (Goff et al.) to estimate your 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular event — nonfatal heart attack, coronary heart disease death, or fatal/nonfatal stroke. It uses four sex- and race-specific coefficient sets (White female, White male, African American female, African American male), each with its own baseline survival and mean risk-factor sum. Your age, cholesterol, blood pressure (with a treated/untreated distinction), and smoking and diabetes status form a weighted risk sum, which is combined with the cohort's baseline survival to produce a 10-year probability. Everything is computed in your browser.
The published 2013 ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations. Per sex/race group:
1. Build a linear risk sum from log-transformed continuous inputs and their
age-interaction terms — ln(age), ln(age)², ln(total cholesterol),
ln(age)·ln(TC), ln(HDL), ln(age)·ln(HDL), ln(systolic BP) split by
treated vs untreated, current-smoker (+ age interaction), and diabetes —
each multiplied by its group's coefficient.
2. 10-year risk = 1 − S0^exp(IndividualSum − GroupMean),
where S0 is the group's baseline 10-year survival and GroupMean is the
cohort's mean risk sum.
Exact coefficients, S0, and mean values are those published in the guideline
(four groups; "Other" race uses the White coefficients, as in the standard tool).
Result is expressed as a percentage.
Age (40-79) · Sex · Race · Total cholesterol · HDL cholesterol · Systolic blood pressure · On BP-lowering treatment · Diabetes · Current smoker
Estimated 10-year ASCVD risk (%) · Risk category · Interpretation
- You are aged 40-79 without known atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease — the population the equations were derived and validated in.
- Cholesterol and blood-pressure values are recent, US-conventional units (mg/dL, mmHg).
- Race is entered as White or African American; the equations have no separate coefficients for other groups, so "Other" uses the White set as the standard tool does.
- Validated only for ages 40-79; outside that range the estimate is unreliable and the tool blocks it.
- The equations can over- or under-estimate risk in some populations and were built on older US cohorts.
- Only two race categories exist in the model, which limits accuracy for many individuals.
- A risk-enhancing factor (family history, Lp(a), high triglycerides, inflammatory disease) or a coronary calcium score can shift the true picture the equation cannot see.
- For informational and educational use only — this is not a diagnosis.
- A risk percentage does not decide whether you need a statin or any other treatment; those decisions belong with a qualified clinician who knows your full history.
- Interpret borderline and intermediate results as the start of a shared-decision conversation, not an automatic prescription.
References
This calculator is for educational purposes only and is not medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Results are estimates based on published formulas and population averages — your individual values may differ. Nothing here is calculated on a server: everything runs in your browser and no data is stored or sent anywhere. Always consult a qualified clinician before making health, medication, or training decisions.